On The Unknown and Unknowable
Most sense the desperation of our times. At no time in history has the unknowable been so knowable and foreboding. We are barraged with testimony about the end times, the biblical predictions of the end of days. The harbingers of doom with predictions of enslavement by super-intelligent robots of our own creation, nuclear terrorism, biological warfare, asteroids on a collision course with Earth, running out of food and water or oil ad infinitum. I suspect that closer to the truth is that there is a black swan lurking behind every lamppost. Black Swans are a euphemism for the unpredictable. They are, by definition, catastrophic events that are unknowable. The foregoing is knowable fodder for speculation. Black swans are unknowable unknowns. Something that is reasonably predictable is, say, nuclear war because there are 10 or so known members of the nuclear club, some governed by psychopaths. This is not a black swan. Swans are the real doomsday events. The antithesis of a black swan is a miraculous event. Those we don’t expect. They cannot be prepared for because they are not knowable.
If we look back at the predictions in science fiction, for example, the movies of 2001 or 2010 or 1984 as examples, we realize quickly that the predictions did not come to pass, and further, we can see now that the near-term realization of such events is even more unrealizable. Space travel is non-trivial and further unimaginably expensive. The cinematic futurists did not reckon with economics, much less the physical hazards of space travel and the psychological hazards, including imprisoning a number of human beings in a tin can for a very long time. A mission to even neighbor Mars is, of course, extremely difficult with current technology. Does it mean that we won’t do it any time soon? No, not at all. It’s quite possible that some black swan discovery will make it so very quickly, but the point is that that event is currently unknowable.
We mistakenly assume that we can predict the future based on the past and present. Statistics, which is the mantra of mathematical prediction capability, is really based on history, not the future. We assume that current trends will continue without intervening events. That the current rates of increase in chip speed, memory capacity, and programing skill will result in super-intelligent robots in the near future. Perhaps that will come true; however, there are many detractors of this theory, that a group of chips will somehow approach human intelligence. This is a fanciful prediction and one that has been made repeatedly in the past. Skill at playing chess or success at Jeopardy is not intelligence. Is it reasonable to predict super machine intelligence approaching human intelligence based on this trend?
Although astronomers will predict that there are billions of planets in the universe capable of giving rise to life, biologists more familiar with the nature and complexity of life are not so sure. In this regard, the history of life is fraught with black swans, mass extinctions, for example, that paved the way for the evolution of what we are at this time in our history. These events played as big a role in the development and complexity of life as the orderly and perhaps somewhat predictable evolution of complexity. Given this statement of history, much of the future can be acknowledged to be unpredictable.
The increasing consumption of energy and food shortages resulting from unabated birthrates are disastrous consequences easy for most to grasp. These are all things that reasonable men would speculate about. There are many jigs and jags in history. The recent earthquake in New Zealand was not predictable. It was a Black Swan in the eyes of most New Zealanders, and the country will never be the same. Could they have prepared for it? Sure, all the buildings could have been made earthquake resilient; an enormous investment for an event that may never have happened. An army of emergency workers could have been enlisted in contingency for such an event.
Did anyone predict Katrina or the BP oil spill or the massive wildfires in California? We know from historical data that such events do occur, and we might even make some statistical predictions from them; however, making statements like the probability of a category 5 hurricane hitting New Orleans is such and so does not instill action in the hearts of most citizens. That is the best we can do in terms of long-term planning about events that have some observable history. We can say nothing about events that have no observable history other than that we know that weird things happen from time to time.
So what are reasonable men to do? Someone once said that of the things we have some control over in our lives, most of the bad things that happen to us individually are the result of bad judgment or laziness. These things will also guarantee that mostly nothing of consequence will happen. This is a profound piece of wisdom, and I can positively say this is true from the events in my own life. It is a corollary that most of the good things are probably the result of hard work, perseverance, and sometimes fortuitous circumstances.
Being prepared and in the right place at the right time will place you in a position to make good of circumstances should they occur.
1. See for example Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010) [2007]. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2nd ed.). London: Penguin. ISBN 978-0-14103459-1.
